is the subject of my Trade Tripper column in this Friday-Saturday issue of BusinessWorld:
While the rest of the world was still reeling
from its Christmas celebrations, including, I might add, playing with
the numerous Chinese-manufactured toys given over the holidays,
ironically China’s government seemed intent on continuing its role of
being the village Grinch.
Last December (see Wall Street Journal, “China’s Hunger
for Fish Upsets Seas,” Dec. 28, 2012), Argentine officials captured
Chinese vessels illegally fishing in the former’s territorial waters:
“Argentina authorities say the Chinese ships were intercepted off
Patagonia, two nautical miles inside Argentina’s 200-mile exclusive
economic zone, on Monday. A federal judge is questioning the ship
captains, officials said. In a statement, China’s Foreign Ministry said
it is trying to verify the facts of the case. The episode comes as
China’s fishing boats increasingly find themselves embroiled in both
cross-border and commercial disputes. Chinese ships fish in both
international waters and under bilateral fisheries agreement in the
waters of other nations.”
However, it wasn’t only the Argentinians: “In an October dispute
involving a Chinese vessel, South Korean coast guard escorts Chinese
sailors whose boat was seized for illegal fishing.” Reasonably, “South
Korea seized a Chinese boat and detained 24 sailors for allegedly
illegally fishing in the Yellow Sea. Vietnam has accused Chinese fishing
boats of cutting its gas-exploration cables at sea. Chinese fishing
boats have also sailed around disputed islands known as Senkaku in Japan
and Diaoyu -- which means ‘fishing’ in Chinese-in China, contributing
to worsening relations with Tokyo.”
So it’s no surprise that China’s government will seek to continually
bully the Philippines. After its unnecessarily bizarre stunt of putting
images of our territory in maps found in newly issued Chinese passports,
China’s government then releases new official maps that include
portions of our territory. As reported by ABS-CBN: “The new maps
reportedly include more than 130 islands and islets in the West
Philippine Sea, including the islands and waters that other countries
such as Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia also claim as part of their
territory.”
Appropriately, however, the DFA is withholding comment until further
facts could be established: “The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) has
asked its Embassy in Beijjing to verify reports that China will be
publishing new maps that include the disputed territories in the West
Philippine sea. ‘We sent communication to Beijing on Sunday to verify
reports on the new map of China... We are getting verification as to the
extent of its coverage on the West Philippine Sea before we make any
further comment,” DFA spokesperson Raul Hernandez said. Hernandez said
they will only plan their course of action after receiving feedback from
the embassy. The new maps will reportedly not be available to the
public until the end of January. But if the maps violate the sovereignty
of the Philippines by including its territories in the new map, the
Philippine government will file a protest.
Nevertheless, if history is any guide, there is every reason why we
should feel confident that the Philippine claim will win out in the end.
James Holmes, an associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War
College, writing for The Diplomat (“Why Philippines Stands Up To
China,” May 14, 2012), stated that indeed the “Philippines is hopelessly
mismatched against China in pure military terms. But there are
historical reasons why it won’t back down in the South China Sea.”
The reason given, correctly in my view, is that “diplomacy and war are
interactive enterprises. Both sides -- not just the strong -- get a
vote. Manila refuses to vote Beijing’s way. Military supremacy is no
guarantee of victory in wartime, let alone in peacetime controversies.
The strong boast advantages that bias the competition in their favor.
But the weak still have options. Manila can hope to offset Beijing’s
advantages, and it has every reason to try.” The Diplomat’s
point: “That the weak can vanquish the strong is an idea with a long
pedigree” and “good things come to those who waited,” and, thus,
“there’s some precedent for Philippine leaders to hope for diplomatic
success at Scarborough Shoal.”
And if there’s still any doubters that the Philippines can succeed in this struggle should read Malcolm Gladwell’s New Yorker article “How David Beats Goliath” (http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/05/11/090511fa_fact_gladwell).
The renowned writer of The Tipping Point and the Outliers noted that
“underdogs win all the time, more than we continue to think.” In fact,
“‘Goliath’ only wins 66 percent of the time -- which is first of all
astonishing -- so 34 percent of time someone who is one-tenth the size
of his opponent wins.” But what’s astonishing is that if the underdog
shifts to intelligently adopting creative strategies and improvisation,
the probability of the underdog winning rises exponentially to 63.6%.
So rather than picking fights with our actual allies like the US and
listening to supposed intellectuals proclaiming how we’ll never win
against giant China, perhaps we’d be better off thinking how we can
prevail against those who seek to take what’s ours.
